A new analysis by Oxford Economics reveals that Democratic-leaning states will bear the brunt of Medicaid cuts introduced in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The cuts, including tighter eligibility rules and new work requirements, will result in millions of Americans losing health insurance coverage.
Disproportionate Effect on Immigrant Populations
The analysis highlights that immigrant populations will be disproportionately impacted by the changes. States with large immigrant populations, such as California and New York, which have expanded Medicaid, are expected to experience the most significant effects.
Many immigrants will lose coverage under Medicaid, Medicare, and the Children’s Health Insurance Program.
States with High Medicaid Enrollment at Risk
States like Louisiana, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Washington, D.C., with large immigrant populations, are also vulnerable to the funding cuts.
The new restrictions and federal matching funds for noncitizens’ medical care will shift the financial burden onto state governments and local hospitals.
Economic Consequences of Medicaid Cuts
Barbara Denham, lead economist at Oxford Economics, points out that the expiration of the Marketplace subsidies and federal funding cuts will have broader economic consequences. The number of newly uninsured people will increase, potentially leading to poorer health outcomes and decreased productivity growth.
States with High Foreign-Born Populations Affected
States with large foreign-born populations, who heavily rely on Medicaid, are particularly at risk. As federal funding for immigrant care is reduced, these states face increased pressure to cover the financial gap, potentially straining their healthcare systems and budgets.
Existing State Efforts to Address the Cuts
In response to these challenges, some states have implemented measures to protect their residents. California, for example, has paused the enrollment of new immigrants in its health coverage program. Meanwhile, Illinois has halted state-funded health benefits for immigrant adults aged 42 to 64.
States with the Highest Medicaid Losses Per Resident
The Oxford Economics analysis suggests that more left-leaning states will face higher per-resident Medicaid losses as the new law takes effect. Louisiana, a right-leaning state, will experience the largest loss at $5,855 per resident.
States that did not expand Medicaid, such as Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and Wyoming, will experience smaller cuts.
Buffering Measures in Some States
Some states have passed laws to mitigate the effects of federal Medicaid cuts. For instance, New York, Missouri, Oklahoma, and South Dakota have expanded coverage for adults earning up to 138% of the federal poverty line.
Other states, like Arizona, Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, and Virginia, have tied Medicaid spending to federal funding levels, attempting to protect their budgets and residents.
